Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon Today's Game... 1. 300,000♦ Kings
1. Kings- Oh are Suns-backers going to get slaughtered here! Phoenix wins four games in a row, and all of a sudden the public is ready to forget about the last 3 months of incredibly inconsistent play?! Quite frankly, the Suns may be the most overrated team in the pros this season, and if you need any proof, notice 90% of the public is on them in this contest! That should immediately be sending up red flags, because as I've said before: "If it looks to good to be true, it probably is!"
Why back the Suns now? They're in the midst of a winning streak, so you know there's going to be little value, AND despite the public being ALL OVER Phoenix, the line is actually shrinking (opened at -3', now at 2')! That reverse line movement is one of the best indicators of where the smart money is going, and in this case, its clearly going on Sacramento! Also of note, the home team is 9-3 ATS in their L12 games in this series!
So why Sacramento, and how do they do it? Well, first off, the return of a healthy Kevin Martin gives the Kings one of the most explosive backcourts in the NBA. Stud rookie, Tyreke Evans is coming off a 32-point, 8 assist, 7 board effort vs the Spurs. While we all know how good Martin can be when healthy, having 33 and 31 point games earlier this week! Nash and Richardson may be talented, but the veterans simply cannot keep up with the quicker Kings guards. Make no mistake, the Kings backcourt will do anything they want against this piss-poor Suns road defense (allowing 109 ppg on 46% shooting away this season).
In the frontcourt, we give the edge to the Suns, but not by as much as you'd think. Yes, Thompson is out, but Donte Green has stepped up nicely in his stead, and I like 6'9 sharpshooter Omri Casspi, making for a good 1-2 punch. Hawes is no juggernaut, but he's big, averaging 20.5 ppg over his L2 games, and is a better player at this point than the Suns' Robin Lopez. Amare will get his points, but after that, I like the Kings frontline match ups better.
Finally, motivation is a big factor here, or should I say lack of motivation on the Suns part. Why? This is the final game of a winnig road trip that saw them beat the Rockets, Hornets, and Nuggets... Do you really think the Suns care what happens tonight at Arco? They've already secured a winning road trip, and beat Sacramento twice this season... So, if any team is going to come in unfocused and overconfident, it'll be Phoenix. In the end, I'm not about perception, I'm about reality, and the reality is the Suns are overrated and VERY vulnerable in this spot. A healthy Kings team is NO bottom-dweller, and they'll prove it tonight. I'm going to advocate taking the points, but don't be surprised to see the Kings win outright in this spot.
Take the Kings plus the points over the Suns as your top-rated play of the day.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS